Takaichi’s victory delays Japan’s reckoning with immigration reform
Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has chosen its new leader, and the outcome marks a significant shift. Sanae Takaichi’s victory in the 4 October 2025 presidential election and her likely elevation to the prime ministership signals that Japan’s government will pursue a harder line on foreign resident policy. But in the wake of its declining population and economic dependence on foreign workers, Japan needs a comprehensive immigration policy — not just reactive anti-immigrant politics.
Takaichi was the candidate who most aggressively championed restrictions in a LDP leadership campaign that came to be dominated by talk of immigration and foreign resident policy, as well as funding scandals and rising prices. It is rare for the issue of foreign residents to play a starring role in a party leadership race. That it did so in this contest reflects the LDP’s crisis of confidence after its defeat in the upper house election on 20 July 2025 — a setback largely attributed to the rise of the populist Sanseito and its ‘Japan First’ rhetoric that opposes ‘excessive acceptance of foreigners’.
Sanseito’s success showed that appeals to cultural protectionism and scepticism towards foreigners could siphon conservative voters from the LDP. LDP strategists concluded that their traditional base was vulnerable, so the race for LDP presidency became less about vision and more about reclaiming conservative votes being lost to populist alternatives.
Takaichi’s win crystallised this shift. Her brand of nationalist rhetoric — mixing cultural pride with warnings of social strain — proved more compelling within party ranks than calls for measured or inclusive policy. At her campaign launch rally, she invoked a widely shared anecdote of tourists allegedly kicking deer in Nara Park as a metaphor for foreigners’ disrespect toward Japanese traditions. She effectively turned isolated acts into a justification for systemic restrictions. This message resonated in a party anxious about its electoral base.
Even runoff rival Shinjiro Koizumi, often viewed as a reformist, shifted rightward during the race, promising to ‘correct improper uses of medical insurance and child allowances’ by foreigners. Other contenders also invoked public anxieties, reinforcing the impression that toughness on foreigners was the LDP’s new loyalty test. But in the end, Takaichi’s willingness to link foreign residents directly to threats against cultural identity and social order gave her the edge. Her victory indicates that the LDP’s centre of gravity has tilted towards exclusionary nationalism.
Yet the claims that underpin the growing anti-foreigner sentiment in Japan are thin and fuelled by misinformation circulating on social media. One persistent myth is that foreigners disproportionately exploit welfare programs. In reality, Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare statistics show that, as of April 2024, foreigners account for 3.2 per cent of welfare recipients — which is nearly identical to their 3.1 per cent share of the population.
Another widespread belief is that crime has worsened due to the influx of foreigners. But government data reveals that the number of foreigners arrested for Penal Code violations has fallen to one third of what it was less than two decades ago. False narratives about foreign residents have proven politically useful, generating a cultural threat that candidates can use to mobilise voters.
What is striking about Takaichi’s leadership campaign — and now her victory — is the absence of a guiding vision for coexistence with foreign residents. Japan’s economy and welfare system are already deeply dependent on foreign residents. Population decline guarantees that this reliance will only intensify, as a shrinking labour force will push industries to rely more on long-term foreign workers. Denying this reality while framing it as cultural threat risks leaving Japan unprepared for the future.
For decades, Japan has avoided adopting a comprehensive immigration policy. Successive administrations have expanded technical worker programs and promoted inbound tourism while insisting that these policies did not amount to ‘immigration’.
Evading the mention of immigration — a strategy designed to placate conservative opinion — has left the country without the legal and institutional frameworks needed for the long-term integration of foreign residents. Takaichi’s win suggests that this avoidance will deepen rather than diminish.
National immigration policies may be stalled, but local governments have quietly taken the lead in integrating foreign residents. Cities like Hamamatsu and Kawasaki, home to large foreign populations, have pioneered language education, welfare access and community-building initiatives.
In July 2025, all 47 prefectural governors jointly issued the ‘Aomori Declaration’, insisting that foreigners must be recognised not only as workers but as residents living alongside Japanese citizens. They have called for a Basic Law on Intercultural Coexistence, stable budgets for integration and a cross-ministerial working group. Their stance underscored a widening gap — while national leaders emphasise restrictions, local governments grapple with the practical realities of multicultural communities.
Takaichi’s leadership cements this disconnect. Her focus on policing foreigners may help the LDP shore up conservative support, but does little to solve Japan’s fundamental population decline challenge. Without a serious immigration policy, industries will falter, welfare systems will strain and communities will fracture.
The new LDP leadership does not seem to recognise these challenges and are instead locked into short-term fixes. The recently established LDP committee on ‘orderly coexistence’ avoided long-term planning, restricting itself to reviewing admission frameworks.
Japan’s future cannot be secured through cultural defensiveness alone. True coexistence means treating foreigners as community members and equal stakeholders — not merely as disposable labour. It requires investment in language and skills programs, rights protections and civic participation. Ordinary citizens also have a role — reaffirming Japanese norms while engaging in dialogue across cultural divides.
Takaichi’s victory suggests that this coexistence will not come from the current LDP leadership. Her rise reflects a party still guided by short-term electoral calculations rather than the vision Japan needs. Until that changes, the debate over foreign resident policy will remain reactive, divisive and ultimately inadequate for the challenges ahead.
Yasuo Takao is Adjunct Senior Research Fellow at the School of Media, Creative Arts and Social Inquiry, Curtin University.