Affluence, Obesity and Non-Communicable Diseases in India

Recent high rates of economic growth in India have been accompanied by major dietary
transitions. Using a nationwide household survey, India Human Development Survey 2005,
this paper estimates the impact of such transitions on the incidence of non communicable
diseases (NCDs) such as diabetes, coronary heart disease and cancer in India. The estimated
deaths from NCDs are projected to rise from 3.78 million in 1990 (40.46 per cent of all
deaths) to 7.63 million deaths in 2020 (66.70 per cent of all deaths). The paper also
investigates relationships between NCDs and key demographic variables, level of affluence,
caste affiliation and geographical concentration of the sample. The paper also models the
determinants of these NCDs. The paper concludes with broad policy prescriptions.