This program develops and applies econometric methods for understanding the macroeconomy and the effects of macroeconomic policy. Its research spans the measurement of unobserved quantities such as output gaps, trend inflation and natural rates of interest; the identification of macroeconomic shocks and their propagation; models with nonlinearity, time variation and structural change; and forecasting, nowcasting and model evaluation under uncertainty. The program's emphasis is on methods that yield credible and robust empirical evidence for macroeconomic research and policy.