Rising Temperatures, Melting Incomes: Country- Specific Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Scenarios

We estimate country-specific annual per-capita GDP losses from global warming using the most recent
climate scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) under different mitigation,
adaptation, and climate variability assumptions. Our results indicate that without significant mitigation and
adaptation efforts, global GDP per capita could decline by up to 24 percent under the high-emissions
climate scenarios by 2100. These income losses vary significantly across the 174 countries in our sample,
depending on the projected paths of temperatures and their variability.