Commodities and the Macroeconomy | Crawford School of Public Policy

Price Effects of US–China Trade Wars

Vol: 30/2026 Authors: Duong TH, Liu W Year: 2026 Month: May

Duong
Liu
Commodities and the Macroeconomy

23 December 2025

Critical Minerals in an Age of Geopolitical Rivalry: Stockpiling, Refining Constraints, and the Limits of Friend-Shoring

Vol: 72/2025 Authors: Saadaoui J; Smyth R; Vespignani J; Wang Y Year: 2025 Month: December

Saadaoui
Smyth
Vespignani
Commodities and the Macroeconomy

The Trade-Inflation Nexus: The Role of Production Networks

Vol: 23/2025 Authors: Duong TH; Liu W Year: 2025 Month: April (Revised in December)

Duong
Liu
Commodities and the Macroeconomy
COVID-19 and the Macroeconomy

Strategic Stockpiling Reduces the Geopolitical Risk to the Supply Chain of Copper and Lithium

Vol: 42/2025 Authors: Vespignani J, Smyth R; Saadaoui J Year: 2025 Month: July

Vespignani
Finance and the Macroeconomy
Commodities and the Macroeconomy

The Drivers and Macroeconomic Impacts of Low-Carbon Innovation: A Cross-Country Exploration

Vol: 39/2025 Authors: Hasna Z; Hatton H; Jaumotte F; Kim J; Mohaddes K; Pienknagura S Year: 2025 Month: July

Mohaddes
Climate Change and Energy
Commodities and the Macroeconomy

17 October 2025

Forecasting Oil and Natural Gas Prices: A Model Combination Approach

Vol: 54/2025 Authors: Aag R; Bjørnland HC; Eliassen P Year: 2025 Month: October

Bjørnland
Commodities and the Macroeconomy

23 February 2026

Where Geopolitical Risk Binds: Stockpiling and AI as Complementary Strategies for Mitigating Supply Chain Risk in Critical Minerals

Vol: 15/2026 Authors: Vespignani J, Smyth R, Saadaoui J, Wang Y Year: 2026 Month: February

Vespignani
Smyth
Saadaoui
Commodities and the Macroeconomy

US Monetary Spillovers, Foreign Exchange, and Gold Reserves at Times of Geopolitical Fragmentation

Vol: 61/2026 Authors: Aizenman J, Saadaoui J, Uddin GS, Yago N Year: 2026 Month: July

Saadaoui
Finance and the Macroeconomy
Commodities and the Macroeconomy

Dutch Disease, Unemployment and Structural Change

Vol: 38/2023 Authors: Mariano Kulish, James Morley, Nadine Yamout, Francesco Zanetti Month: August Year: 2023

Kulish
Morley
Zanetti
Model Uncertainty and Macro-Econometrics
Commodities and the Macroeconomy

Forecasting Oil Prices Across the Distribution: A Quantile VAR Approach

Vol: 39/2026 Authors: Bjørnland HC, Hardy N, Korobilis D Year: 2026 Month: May

Bjørnland
Commodities and the Macroeconomy
Model Uncertainty and Macro-Econometrics

23 January 2021

How Do Oil Shocks Transmit Through the US Economy? Evidence from a Large BVAR Model with Stochastic Volatility

Vol: 13/2021 Authors: Fry-McKibbin R; Zhu B Year: 2021 Month: January

Fry-McKibbin
Zhu
Commodities and the Macroeconomy

27 February 2020

Disentangling Commodity Demand, Commodity Supply, and International Liquidity Shocks on an Emerging Market

Vol: 18/2020 Authors: Renée Fry-McKibbin, Rodrigo da Silva Souza Month: February Year: 2020

Fry-McKibbin
Souza
Commodities and the Macroeconomy

04 September 2019

Transmission of a Resource Boom: The Case of Australia

Vol: 63/2019 Authors: Mardi Dungey, Renee Fry-McKibbin, Vladimir Volkov Month: September Year: 2019

Dungey
Fry-McKibbin
Volkov
Commodities and the Macroeconomy

27 January 2017

Oil Price Shocks and Policy Uncertainty: New Evidence on the Effects of US and Non-US Oil Production

Vol: 07/2017 Authors: Wensheng Kang, Ronald A. Ratti, Joaquin Vespignani Month: January Year: 2017

Ratti
Vespignani
Commodities and the Macroeconomy

The Role of Precautionary and Speculative Demand in the Global Market for Crude Oil

Vol: 34/2020 Authors: Jamie L. Cross, Bao H. Nguyen, Trung Duc Tran Month: April Year: 2020

Cross
Nguyen
Tran TD
Commodities and the Macroeconomy

10 January 2021

Oil and fiscal policy regimes

Vol: 10/2021 Author name: Bjørnland HC; Casarin R; Lorusso M; Ravazzolo F Year: 2021 Month: January

Bjørnland
Ravazzolo
Commodities and the Macroeconomy
Macroeconomic Policy Frameworks program

21 October 2025

Environmental Pressure in Supply Chains: Pass-Through Effects on R&D and Innovation

Vol: 55/2025 Authors: Cavalcanti T; Mohaddes K; Nian H; Yin H Year: 2025 Month: October

Mohaddes
Commodities and the Macroeconomy
Climate Change and Energy

Effects of Government Regulation of Diesel and Petrol Prices on GDP Growth: Evidence from China

Vol: 17/2023 Authors: Markus Brueckner, Haidi Hong, Joaquin Vespignani Month: March Year: 2023

Brueckner
Vespignani
Finance and the Macroeconomy
Commodities and the Macroeconomy

Fuel Price Caps in the Australian National Wholesale Electricity Market

Vol: 39/2023 Authors: Armin Pourkhanali, Peyman Khezr, Rabindra Nepal, Tooraj Jamasb Month: August Year: 2023

Nepal
Climate Change and Energy
Commodities and the Macroeconomy

18 December 2025

Recycling or Stockpiling? Country-Specific Strategies for Securing EV Battery Critical Minerals

Vol: 70/2025 Authors: Wang Y; Vespignani J; Smyth R Year: 2025 Month: December

Vespignani
Smyth
Commodities and the Macroeconomy

New Kid on the Block? China vs the US in World Oil Markets

Vol: 33/2009 Authors: Jamie Cross, Bao H. Nguyen, Bo Zhang Month: May Year: 2019

Cross
Nguyen
Zhang
Commodities and the Macroeconomy

09 January 2021

The macroeconomic effects of commodity price uncertainty

Vol: 09/2021 Author name: Tran TD Year: 2021 Month: January

Tran TD
Commodities and the Macroeconomy

Common Factors and the Dynamics of Cereal Prices: A Forecasting Perspective

Vol: 47/2020 Authors: Marek Kwas, Alessia Paccagnini, Michal Rubaszek Month: May Year: 2020

Paccagnini
Model Uncertainty and Macro-Econometrics
Commodities and the Macroeconomy

21 November 2017

Recovery from Dutch Disease

Vol: 69/2017 Authors: Mardi Dungey, Renée Fry-McKibbin, Verity Todoroski, Vladimir Volkov Month: November Year: 2017

Dungey
Fry-McKibbin
Todoroski
Volkov
Commodities and the Macroeconomy

30 December 2019

Forecasting Energy Commodity Prices: A Large Global Dataset Sparse Approach

Vol: 90/2019 Authors: Davide Ferrari, Francesco Ravazzolo, Joaquin Vespignani Month: December Year: 2019

Ravazzolo
Vespignani
Commodities and the Macroeconomy

18 December 2018

Drivers of Growth in the Philippines

Vol: 54/2018 Authors: Markus Brueckner, Birgit Hansl Month: October Year: 2018

Brueckner
Commodities and the Macroeconomy
Macroeconomic Policy Frameworks

22 September 2020

Commodity Price Volatility, Fiscal Balance and Real Interest Rate

Vol: 79/2020 Authors: Monoj Kumar Majumder, Mala Raghavan, Joaquin Vespignani Month: September Year: 2020

Raghavan
Vespignani
Finance and the Macroeconomy
Commodities and the Macroeconomy

09 September 2016

The U.S. Oil Supply Revolution and the Global Economy

Vol: 55/2016 Authors: Kamiar Mohaddes, Mehdi Raissi Month: September Year: 2016

Mohaddes
Commodities and the Macroeconomy

Food, Fuel, and Facts: Distributional Effects of Global Price Shocks

Vol: 45/2024 Author name: Saroj Bhattarai, Arpita Chatterjee, Gautham Udupa Year: 2024 Month: June

Bhattarai
Chatterjee
Commodities and the Macroeconomy

Climate Shocks in Global Oil Markets: Time-Varying ENSO Transmission to WTI Spot and Futures Prices

Vol: 56/2026 Authors: Gallegati M, Ginn W, Saadaoui J, Solomou S, Tian K Year: 2026 Month: August

Saadaoui
Commodities and the Macroeconomy
Climate Change and Energy

26 September 2018

Chinese Resource Demand or Commodity Price Shocks: Macroeconomic Effects for an Emerging Market Economy

Vol: 45/2018 Authors: Renée Fry-McKibbin, Rodrigo da Silva Souza Month: September Year: 2018

Fry-McKibbin
Souza
Commodities and the Macroeconomy

Real-Time Forecast Combinations for the Oil Price

Vol: 38/2018 Authors: Anthony Garratt, Shaun P. Vahey, Yunyi Zhang Month: August Year: 2018

Vahey
Model Uncertainty and Macro-Econometrics
Commodities and the Macroeconomy

Between a rock and a hard place: A new perspective on the resource curse

Vol: 50/2021 Author name: Arezki R; Brueckner M Year: 2021 Month: June

Brueckner
Commodities and the Macroeconomy

Forecasting Natural Gas Prices Using Highly Flexible Time-Varying Parameter Models

Vol: 30/2020 Authors: Shen Gao, Chenghan Hou, Bao H. Nguyen Month: March Year: 2020

Nguyen
Commodities and the Macroeconomy

12 February 2026

The Adaptation Imperative: Climate Change and Sovereign Credit Risk

Vol: 11/2026 Authors: Burke M, Mohaddes K, Raissi M Year: 2026 Month: February

Mohaddes
Climate Change and Energy
Commodities and the Macroeconomy

23 January 2023

Air Pollution and Firm-Level Human Capital, Knowledge and Innovation

Vol: 01/2023 Authors: Tiago Cavalcanti, Kamiar Mohaddes, Hongyu Nian, Haitao Yin Month: January Year: 2023

Mohaddes
Commodities and the Macroeconomy

Commodity Prices and Fiscal Policy Design: Procyclical Despite a Rule

Vol: 27/2016 Authors: Hilde C. Bjørnland, Leif Anders Thorsrud Month: May Year: 2016

Bjørnland
Commodities and the Macroeconomy

An Analysis of the Global Oil Market Using SVARMA Models

Vol: 25/2019 Author: Mala Raghavan Month: March Year: 2019

Raghavan
Commodities and the Macroeconomy
Model Uncertainty and Macro-Econometrics

Understanding the US Natural Gas Market: A Markov Switching VAR Approach

Vol: 14/2018 Authors: Chenghan Hou, Bao H. Nguyen Month: April Year: 2018

Nguyen
Commodities and the Macroeconomy

08 February 2016

Increasing Trends in the Excess Comovement of Commodity Prices

Vol: 09/2016 Authors: Kazuhiko Ohashi, Tatsuyoshi Okimoto Month: February Year: 2016

Okimoto
Commodities and the Macroeconomy

29 December 2017

Oil and Macroeconomic (In)stability

Vol: 79/2017 Authors: Hilde C. Bjørnland, Vegard H. Larsen, Junior Maih Month: December Year: 2017

Bjørnland
Commodities and the Macroeconomy

Inflation Expectations and How it Explains the Inflationary Impact of Oil Price Shocks: Evidence from the Michigan Survey

Vol: 45/2014 Author: Benjamin Wong Month: June Year: 2014

Wong
Commodities and the Macroeconomy

Global Commodity Prices and Global Stock Volatility Shocks: Effects across Countries

Vol: 36/2017 Authors: Wensheng Kang, Ronald A. Ratti, Joaquin Vespignani Month: May Year: 2017

Ratti
Vespignani
Commodities and the Macroeconomy

24 October 2022

Forecasting Oil Prices: Can Large BVARs Help?

Vol: 65/2022 Authors: Bao H. Nguyen, Bo Zhang Month: October Year: 2022

Nguyen
Zhang
Commodities and the Macroeconomy

13 February 2019

Uncertainty and Sign-Dependent Effects of Oil Market Shocks

Vol: 10/2019 Authors: Bao H. Nguyen, Tatsuyoshi Okimoto, Trung Duc Tran Month: February Year: 2019

Nguyen
Okimoto
Tran TD
Commodities and the Macroeconomy

Drivers of Growth in Russia

Vol: 42/2016 Authors: Markus Brueckner, Birgit Hansl Month: July Year: 2016

Brueckner
Commodities and the Macroeconomy

13 October 2021

Oil prices and fiscal policy in an oil-exporter country: Empirical evidence from Oman

Vol: 87/2021 Author name: Aljabri S; Raghavan M; Vespignan J Year: 2021 Month: October

Raghavan
Vespignani
Commodities and the Macroeconomy

19 September 2018

Reforming Fiscal Institutions in Resource-Rich Arab Economies: Policy Proposals

Vol: 41/2018 Authors: Kamiar Mohaddes, Jeffrey B. Nugent, Hoda Selim Month: September Year: 2018

Mohaddes
Commodities and the Macroeconomy

17 September 2018

Illegal Drugs and Public Corruption: Crack Based Evidence from California

Vol: 39/2018 Authors: Alessandro Flamini, Babak Jahanshahi, Kamiar Mohaddes Month: September Year: 2018

Mohaddes
Commodities and the Macroeconomy

05 February 2016

Determinants of Economic Growth in South East Asia: An Analysis for the First Decade of the Third Millennium

Vol: 08/2016 Authors: Markus Brueckner, Paitoon Kraipornsak Month: February Year: 2016

Brueckner
Commodities and the Macroeconomy
Macroeconomic Policy Frameworks

07 October 2014

The Elephant in the Ground: Managing Oil and Sovereign Wealth

Vol: 62/2014 Authors: Ton van den Bremer, Frederick van der Ploeg, Samuel Wills Month: October Year: 2014

Wills
Commodities and the Macroeconomy

23 November 2017

Forecasting the Real Price of Oil Under Alternative Specifications of Constant and Time-Varying Volatility

Vol: 71/2017 Author: Beili Zhu Month: November Year: 2017

Zhu
Commodities and the Macroeconomy

The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on U.S. Bond Market Returns

Vol: 33/2014 Authors: Wensheng Kang, Ronald A. Ratti, Kyung Hwan Yoon Month: April Year: 2014

Ratti
Commodities and the Macroeconomy
Finance and the Macroeconomy

12 September 2016

Oil Prices and the Global Economy: Is It Different This Time Around?

Vol: 56/2016 Authors: Kamiar Mohaddes, M. Hashem Pesaran Month: September Year: 2016

Mohaddes
Commodities and the Macroeconomy

12 February 2014

The sectorial impact of commodity price shocks in Australia

Vol: 19/2014 Authors: Stephen J. Knop, Joaquin L. Vespignani Month: February Year: 2014

Vespignani
Commodities and the Macroeconomy

Commodity Prices and Labour Market Dynamics in Small Open Economies

Vol: 24/2016 Authors: Martin Bodenstein, Güneş Kamber, Christoph Thoenissen Month: May Year: 2016

Bodenstein
Kamber
Thoenissen
Commodities and the Macroeconomy
Open Economy Macroeconomics

The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on the U.S. Stock Market: A Note on the Roles of U.S. and Non-U.S. Oil Production

Vol: 33/2016 Authors: Wensheng Kang, Ronald A. Ratti, Joaquin Vespignani Month: June Year: 2016

Ratti
Vespignani
Commodities and the Macroeconomy

World Steel Production: A New Monthly Indicator of Global Real Economic Activity

Vol: 42/2017 Authors: Francesco Ravazzolo, Joaquin Vespignani Month: July Year: 2017

Ravazzolo
Vespignani
Commodities and the Macroeconomy
Model Uncertainty and Macro-Econometrics

23 February 2017

Do Sovereign Wealth Funds Dampen the Negative Effects of Commodity Price Volatility?

Vol: 11/2017 Authors: Kamiar Mohaddes, Mehdi Raissi Month: February Year: 2017

Mohaddes
Commodities and the Macroeconomy

19 October 2021

Asymmetric response of carbon emissions to recessions and expansions and oil market shocks

Vol: 10/2021 Author name: Jiang X; Stern DI Year: 2021 Month: October

Stern
COVID-19 and the Macroeconomy
Commodities and the Macroeconomy

28 November 2016

Effects of Oil Price and Global Demand Shocks on Small Island Developing States

Vol: 67/2016 Author: Alrick Campbell Month: November Year: 2016

Campbell
Commodities and the Macroeconomy

Terms of Trade Volatility, Government Spending Cyclicality, and Economic Growth

Vol: 36/2016 Authors: Markus Brueckner, Francisco Carneiro Month: June Year: 2016

Brueckner
Commodities and the Macroeconomy

Surfing a Wave of Economic Growth

Vol: 31/2017 Authors: Thomas McGregor, Samuel Wills Month: April Year: 2017

Wills
Commodities and the Macroeconomy

13 September 2016

China’s Slowdown and Global Financial Market Volatility: Is World Growth Losing Out?

Vol: 57/2016 Authors: Paul Cashin, Kamiar Mohaddes, Mehdi Raissi Month: September Year: 2016

Cashin
Mohaddes
Commodities and the Macroeconomy

The great plunge in oil prices: causes, consequences, and policy responses

Vol: 23/2015 Author name: Baffes J; Kose MA; Ohnsorge F; Stocker M Year: 2015 Month: June

Baffes
Kose
Commodities and the Macroeconomy
Finance and the Macroeconomy program

05 September 2016

Growth in International Commodity Prices, the Terms of Trade, and GDP per capita: A Case Study of Vietnam

Vol: 54/2016 Authors: Markus Brueckner, Kien Trung Nguyen Month: September Year: 2016

Brueckner
Commodities and the Macroeconomy

Oil Price Dynamics in a Real Business Cycle Model

Vol: 17/2011 Authors: Vipin Arora, Pedro Gomis-Porqueras Month: June Year: 2011

Gomis-Porqueras
Commodities and the Macroeconomy

11 November 2014

OPEC and Non-OPEC Oil Production and the Global Economy

Vol: 69/2014 Authors: Ronald A. Ratti, Joaquin L. Vespignani Month: November Year: 2014

Ratti
Vespignani
Commodities and the Macroeconomy

29 January 2014

Macroeconomic Consequences of Terms of Trade Episodes, Past and Present

Vol: 11/2014 Authors: Tim Atkin, Mark Caputo, Tim Robinson, Hao Wang Month: January Year: 2014

Robinson
Commodities and the Macroeconomy

03 February 2014

Commodity Prices and BRIC and G3 Liquidity: A SFAVEC Approach

Vol: 13/2014 Authors: Ronald A. Ratti, Joaquin L. Vespignani Month: February Year: 2014

Ratti
Vespignani
Commodities and the Macroeconomy

Policy Uncertainty in China, Oil Shocks and Stock Returns

Vol: 32/2014 Authors: Wensheng Kang, Ronald A. Ratti Month: April Year: 2014

Ratti
Finance and the Macroeconomy
Commodities and the Macroeconomy

Co-movements of Ethanol Related Prices: Evidence from Brazil and the USA

Vol: 11/2015 Author name: Kristoufek L; Janda K; Zilberman D Year: 2015 Month: April

Janda
Commodities and the Macroeconomy
Climate Change and Energy Program

Commodity Currencies and Currency Commodities

Vol: 19/2006 Authors: Kenneth W. Clements, Renee Fry Month: July Year: 2006

Fry-McKibbin
Commodities and the Macroeconomy

Optimal Monetary Responses to Oil Discoveries

Vol: 37/2014 Author: Samuel Wills Month: May Year: 2014

Wills
Commodities and the Macroeconomy

Chinese Resource Demand and the Natural Resource Supplier

Vol: 54/2013 Authors: Mardi Dungey, Renée Fry-McKibbin, Verity Linehan Month: August Year: 2013

Dungey
Fry-McKibbin
Linehan
Commodities and the Macroeconomy

25 February 2013

What Drives Oil Prices? Emerging Versus Developed Economies

Vol: 11/2013 Authors: Knut Are Aastveit, Hilde C. Bjørnland, Leif Anders Thorsrud Month: February Year: 2013

Bjørnland
Commodities and the Macroeconomy

19 October 2011

International Risk Sharing and Commodity Prices

Vol: 34/2011 Authors: Martin Berka, Mario J Crucini, Chih-Wei Wang Month: October Year: 2011

Berka
Crucini
Open Economy Macroeconomics
Commodities and the Macroeconomy

Oil Prices and the Economy: A Global Perspective

Vol: 41/2014 Authors: Ronald A. Ratti, Joaquin L. Vespignani Month: May Year: 2014

Ratti
Vespignani
Commodities and the Macroeconomy

Fiscal Policy with Intertemporally Non-Separable Preferences

Vol: 14/2010 Authors: Luca Bossi, Pedro Gomis Porqueras Month: April Year: 2010

Gomis-Porqueras
Commodities and the Macroeconomy