20th HW Arndt Lecture - Should Indonesia fear the declining demographic dividend?

In 2025, the ANU Indonesia Project is proud to partner with the ANU Arndt-Corden Department of Economics (ACDE) and the Crawford School of Public Policy to present a special edition of the HW Arndt Lecture, featuring Professor Lisa Cameron (The University of Melbourne).

Join us for a timely and critical conversation on the demographic challenges and opportunities facing Southeast Asia’s largest economy.  The lecture will be preceded by light refreshments and an opportunity for networking. 

Event Details

Time: 4:30 pm – 6:30 pm AEST

Program: 

• 4:30 - 5:00pm: Networking and catered hors d'oeuvres and refreshments
• 5:00 - 6:30pm: Lecture and audience Q&A

Location: Lotus Hall, Australian Centre on China in the World, ANU Campus.

This is an in-person only event.

Abstract

Indonesia has been enjoying a period in which its population age structure has been favourable to economic growth – the share of the population who are of working age has been increasing. This gives rise to a “demographic dividend'” which has the potential to spur growth. This period will, however, come to an end in 2030. China is a useful comparison case as its working-age population share has been decreasing since around 2010. China has maintained high economic growth in the face of the declining demographic dividend through a combination of rural to urban migration and dramatic increases in educational attainment. In this talk Lisa Cameron will examine what the declining demographic dividend means for Indonesia and whether it can emulate China's success.

Lisa Cameron: 

Lisa Cameron is the James Riady Chair of Asian Economics and Business, and a Professorial Research Fellow at the Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, at the University of Melbourne. She is a development economist whose research incorporates the techniques of experimental and behavioural economics to better understand human decision-making.

Much of her research focuses on policy evaluation - understanding the impacts and behavioural implications of public policy, with a focus on social and economic issues. She is particularly interested in the welfare of disadvantaged and marginalised groups. Her research largely focuses on Southeast Asia, and she has researched economic issues in Indonesia for three decades.

Lisa received her PhD in economics from Princeton University in 1996. She was elected a Fellow of the Australian Academy of Social Sciences in 2013. Her research has been widely published, including in Science and the Quarterly Journal of Economics, and featured in the New York Times and The Economist. 

This event will be moderated by Associate Professor Yixiao Zhou, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics, Crawford School of Public Policy.