From crisis to nutrition: The Energy-Fertilizer-Food-Nutrition cascade under a Strait of Hormuz disruption

The Strait of Hormuz is the world’s most critical chokepoint for crude oil and fertiliser exports. A prolonged closure would pose a severe risk to global food security. While the 2022 Russia–Ukraine conflict demonstrated how supply disruptions drive up energy and food prices, existing studies have not fully traced the transmission from energy and fertiliser markets through to agricultural production, household consumption, and nutrition outcomes, nor examined distributional effects within countries. 

This study addresses these gaps by integrating a detailed GTAP computable general equilibrium model with household microsimulation covering 34 regions and 51 income deciles, using harmonised World Bank surveys and FAO nutrition data. The model explicitly distinguishes nitrogen, phosphate, and potassium fertilisers. We simulate a benchmark 3.5-month blockade reducing Gulf exports by 29.7%, plus an extreme scenario incorporating higher transport costs, agricultural productivity losses, and fertiliser restrictions. 

Results reveal strong distributional inequalities. Low-income households suffer consumption losses two to three times larger than high-income households in most regions. In Malaysia, MENA, and Mexico, the poorest households face significant welfare losses while the richest may benefit. Fat intake declines the most, followed by protein and calories. The direct blockade accounts for about 73% of the consumption shock, with agricultural productivity losses contributing 20%. 

These findings show that a Hormuz disruption would extend far beyond energy markets, amplifying food insecurity and inequality. They highlight the urgent need to strengthen resilience across the energy–fertiliser–food supply chain and implement targeted protection for vulnerable populations.