Empirical extinction risk

How do we measure the risk of species extinction, and how can this information guide environmental policy and investment decisions?

For over four decades, the IUCN has assessed the conservation status of thousands of species, categorising them from Least Concern to Critically Endangered and Extinct. In this lecture, Professor Ben Groom will present new research that estimates the likelihood of species moving between conservation categories and ultimately becoming extinct.

Drawing on more than four decades of IUCN conservation assessments, the research develops a Markov switching model to estimate extinction probabilities over different time horizons and examine how these risks vary across species groups and habitats. The study also explores how land-use change affects future biodiversity outcomes and introduces the concept of the "value of a statistical species" to help identify conservation priorities and assess the biodiversity impacts of development decisions.

Professor Groom is the Dragon Capital Chair in Biodiversity Economics at the University of Exeter and a member of the UK HM Treasury Biodiversity Working Group. His research has informed policy discussions on biodiversity conservation, climate change, environmental investment, and long-term decision-making.

This lecture will be of interest to researchers, policymakers, students, and practitioners working in biodiversity conservation, environmental economics, climate policy, and sustainable development.

Light refreshments will be provided after the event.