False-positive cancer screening signals: Impacts on medical spending, health behaviors and spillovers

Cancer screening participants often receive false-positive signals, whereby an initial screening result indicates the possible presence of cancer, but subsequent diagnostic testing confirms its absence. Such signals may reduce the efficiency of screening programs and affect individuals’ subsequent health behaviors. Using rich administrative screening records linked to health insurance claims from a municipality in Japan between 2012 and 2024, this study examines the effects of false-positive signals from municipal breast cancer screening on subsequent medical expenditures, mental health, and health behaviors. To address the potential endogeneity in the receipt of false-positive signals, we employ a fuzzy regression discontinuity design that exploits an age-based change in screening modality in Japan, from ultrasonography for women in their 30s to mammography for women aged 40 and above, complemented by an event-study framework to examine dynamic effects. Our main findings are threefold. First, false-positive signals significantly increase spending on follow-up diagnostic tests but do not significantly increase total medical expenditures over a longer time horizon. Second, receiving a false-positive signal increases the likelihood of participating in subsequent cancer screenings. Third, we find modest spillover effects on male family members, particularly in terms of psychological stress and screening behavior.

Time: 1:15–2:30 pm, Tuesday 18 August 2026

Venue: Miller Theatre, Old Canberra House and online via this Zoom: https://anu.zoom.us/j/83051034863?pwd=nZne2h5kW7T7od8gGVvyCIMy2MVoSG.1