The nexus of geopolitical risks, energy commodity prices and electricity supplies: evidence from time-varying approaches on near-real-time daily global power generation data

This study explores the dynamic relationship between geopolitical risks, energy commodity prices, and the electricity supply mix, encompassing total electricity generation and seven specific energy sources. Using high-frequency daily data from January 1, 2019, to October 30, 2024, and applying advanced time-varying econometric techniques, the analysis confirms the interconnectedness of geopolitical events with fluctuations in oil, coal, and natural gas prices, as well as their influence on both overall and source-specific electricity generation. The results reveal that these impacts are not constant but evolving over time, reflecting shifts in the structural transmission mechanisms. Notably, under geopolitical shocks, there is a short-term tendency to rely more on conventional energy sources rather than renewable alternatives such as solar and wind. These findings offer valuable insights into the broader patterns and transmission channels linking geopolitical risks, energy markets, and power generation, with implications for energy policy and resilience.