The seminar will discuss why the Philippines shifted from early postwar frontrunner to late‑20th‑century laggard, how it has since rejoined and even outpaced its regional peers, and whether this growth can last.
The Philippine economy has long been the East Asian outlier. In the early postwar period, with a per capita income higher than many of its neighbours, it was forecast to be one of Asia’s most dynamic economies. But from the mid 1970s its growth trajectory increasingly diverged from its high-growth neighbours. Its per capita income in 2000 was the same as that in 1980. Nevertheless in the 21st century it has rejoined the East Asian mainstream, growing at about the Southeast Asian rate, and faster than its traditional comparator, Thailand. This presentation explores these development dynamics, and asks whether the current growth trajectory can be maintained.
