This presentation explores the determinants of house prices and bank credit. An empirical analysis of panel data of 22 developed countries during 1990–2015 reveals cross-border bank inflows and risk perception in global markets as the key drivers of house prices and bank credit. Moreover, it indicates that the effect of this risk perception on house prices is non-linear, depending on the leverage of local financial systems: it is stronger in economies with higher leveraged financial sectors. These results suggest that local financial cycles are exposed to spillover effects of US monetary policy, and that local banking sectors play key roles in transmitting the effects to local house price cycles.

Satoshi Tobe is Assistant Professor at the School of Policy Studies at Kwansei Gakuin University. He was Visiting Scholar in the Centre on Asia and Globalisation at Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy (November, 2017), and Research Staff in Keio University Global Research Institute (April, 2017－March, 2018). Tobe conducts research on the international finance and macroeconomics fields.

A light lunch will be provided.

The AJRC Seminar Series is a forum for researchers to engage on issues relevant to Japan. Topics include, but are not limited to, economics, international relations, politics, and national security. Seminars are typically very frank and early stage studies are most welcome.