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The world is experiencing unprecedented demographic changes. These shifts in the population growth rate and age structure are affecting the global economy from both the supply and demand side.
With its far reaching impacts on all aspects of the economy, demographic change and its asymmetry across countries raise an important question about the effects on global carbon emissions. In a policy environment where fair and equitable emissions reductions are crucial to increasing ambition on climate action, demographic change and its asymmetry between countries will affect baseline emissions projections and complicate efforts to compare country efforts.
In this seminar, Tsendsuren Batsuuri presents an overview of her PhD dissertation proposal which will comprise of four papers around these issues. In her first paper, Tsendsuren develops a tractable, two country, two sector theoretical model with overlapping generations of households to understand how demographic change and its asymmetry among countries is likely to affect global carbon emissions.
In her second paper, she incorporates fiscal policy into her theoretical framework to show how different institutions and policies aggravate or mitigate emissions consequences of demographic change, such as pension and other fiscal reforms that are being discussed in conjunction with population aging policies. This part of the research will be useful in directing attention to synchronisation of policy solutions for population ageing and climate change.
In her third paper, she tests her theoretical framework against empirical data by incorporating implications from her theoretical framework into existing econometric models to analyse global patterns of carbon emissions in the face of asymmetric demographic change.
In her fourth paper, she embeds her theoretical framework into G-cubed model, a dynamic intertemporal general equilibrium model of the global economy, to project how ongoing demographic change in the world, and particularly in Asia, is going to affect carbon emissions at the global and country level.
Tsendsuren Batsuuri is a PhD candidate in Economics at CAMA in the Crawford School of Public Policy. She is also an ARC Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research (CEPAR) affiliated research student. Her primary research interests are on economics of demographic change and climate change as well as multi-country modelling. Her current research focuses on life cycle models to explain the economic and environmental implications of demographic changes.
The CAMA Macroeconomics Brown Bag Seminars offer CAMA speakers, in particular PhD students, an opportunity to present their work in progress in front of their peers, and reputable visitors to showcase their work.