COVID-19

The international economic implications of a second Trump presidency

Crawford School of Public Policy | Arndt-Corden Department of Economics | Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis

Event details

ACDE Seminar

Date & time

Tuesday 05 November 2024
2.00pm–3.30pm

Venue

Acton Theatre JG Crawford Building and Online Zoom

Speaker

Distinguished Professor Warwick McKibbin, ANU

This presentation will explore policies promoted by former president and now candidate Donald Trump that would potentially affect the global economy. We focus on immigration policy, trade, and erosion of the Federal Reserve Board’s political independence. Each policy has differing macroeconomic and sectoral impacts on the United States and other countries. We find, however, that all the policies examined cause a decline in US production and employment, especially in trade-exposed sectors such as manufacturing and agriculture, as well as higher US inflation. The trade policies do little to improve the US trade balance; however, the erosion of Fed independence does so by causing capital outflows, a significant depreciation of the dollar, and higher unemployment toward the end of 2028, which worsen American living standards. Scenarios combining individual policies show that the changes cause a large inflationary impulse and a significant loss of employment (particularly in manufacturing and agriculture) in the US economy. The negative impact of a contraction in global trade is significant for countries that trade with the United States the most. The adverse effect is offset for some economies by the positive effects of an inflow of foreign capital that would otherwise have gone into the US economy. An online dashboard contains a full set of macroeconomic and sectoral results for all countries.

Link to paper

Professor Warwick McKibbin, AO, FASSA, is a Distinguished Professor of Economics and Public Policy and Director of the Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis (CAMA) in the Crawford School of Public Policy at the Australian National University (ANU).

Full biography

To join in-person:

Venue: Acton Theatre, JG Crawford Building, 132 Lennox Crossing, Acton 2601 ACT (ANU Crawford School of Public Policy)

To join online:

Please register to receive a Zoom link.

Updated:  6 November 2024/Responsible Officer:  Crawford Engagement/Page Contact:  CAP Web Team