Back from the Dead: the GFC and the Resurrection of Long Term Unemployment


Event details


Date & time

Tuesday 22 September 2009


Seminar Room 4, Crawford School of Public Policy, #132 Lennox Crossing, ANU


Bruce Chapman


Hannah McInnes
6125 5559
While Australia now seems to have avoided the catastrophic growth recessions of many countries, it is still clear that the number of people who have been unemployed for over a year (LTU) is soon set to rise by a considerable amount. The talk presents econometric evidence of this inevitability, which is attributable to the 2008/09 stagnation in GDP growth. It is explained that LTU will increase from its current level of about 90,000 to at least 130,000 within a year, and by perhaps as much as 250,000 by the middle of 2011. The talk will outline the reasons that LTU is a critical part of the labour force implications from economic slowdown, in terms of both equity and macro-economic efficiency. Some policy suggestions will be offered, informed in part by Working Nation (1994-96).

Bruce Chapman AM (PhD, Yale) is a Professor of economics at the Crawford School of Economics and Government at the ANU. He has published over 180 articles in the areas of applied economics, education policy, the economics of crime, the economics of sport and the role of income contingent loans in public policy. He has had extensive direct policy experience, including: the motivation and design of Australia?s income contingent charge system for higher education, HECS, in 1988; as a senior economic advisor to Prime Minister Paul Keating from 1994-1996; and as a consultant to the governments of around 15 countries in the 1992-2009 period. His analysis of long term unemployment, with colleagues Raja Junankar and Cezary Kapuscinski, was important to the motivation and design of the Working Nation program in the early 1990s.

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