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When to drop a bombshell

Research School of Economics

Event details

Seminar

Date & time

Tuesday 27 September 2016
12.00pm–1.00pm

Venue

Fred Gruen Economics Seminar Room, H W Arndt Building 25A, ANU

Speaker

Anton Kolotilin, University of New South Wales.

Contacts

Economic Theory Coordinator

Additional links

About the speaker

Anton Kolotilin, University of New South Wales.

At an exogenous deadline, Receiver takes an action, the payoff from which depends on Sender’s private type. Sender privately observes if and when a bombshell arrives. Upon arrival, she chooses when to drop it, which starts a public flow of information about her type. Dropping the bombshell earlier exposes it to greater scrutiny, but signals credibility. We characterize the set of equilibria and show that Sender delays dropping the bombshell, and completely withholds it with positive probability. Our model provides an explanation for an “October Surprise” effect and generates further predictions about the dynamics of information disclosure during election campaigns.We find empirical support for these predictions in the data on US presidential scandals.

Light lunch available.

The Research School of Economics hosts four active seminar series in Applied Microeconomics, Economic Theory, Macroeconomics as well as a General series. Speakers include international and locally well-known economists.

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