Over the last three decades Japanese economy has experienced many significant events. It is quite important to examine how expected inflation rates in Japan have evolved through these events. In this talk, Associate Professor Tatsuyoshi Okimoto will discuss his recent research about the dynamics of expected inflation rates in Japan based on the smooth transition Phillips curve model. Tentative results suggest a strong connection between the expected inflation and monetary policy regimes. In addition, the results indicate that the introduction of inflation targeting policy in the beginning of 2013 have successfully escaped from deflationary regime, but might not be enough to achieve the 2 per cent inflation target.

Tatsuyoshi Okimoto is Associate Professor of Finance at Crawford School of Public Policy and research director for the Australia-Japan Research Centre. He received his PhD from the University of California, San Diego in 2005. He worked for Hitotsubashi University and Yokohama National University before joining Crawford School. His current research has focused on Financial Econometrics, International Finance, and Applied Macroeconomics. He has published a number of articles in the leading journals in finance and economics such as Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, and Journal of Banking and Finance. He has been awarded the 2015 Junko Maru Prize and 2014 Securities Analysts Journal Prize.

The Crawford School Research Seminar (CSRS) is a forum for scholars from across Crawford School of Public Policy to share their research and receive input from faculty and doctoral candidates on works-in-progress.