COVID-19

Understanding and applying long-term GDP projections

Vol: 
EABER working paper series paper no 119
Author name: 
Paul Hubbard
Dhruv Sharma
Year: 
2016
Month: 
June
Abstract: 

We project gross domestic product (GDP) for 140 world economies from 2020 to 2050 based on United Nation’s demographic projections, the International Monetary Fund’s GDP statistics and estimates of po- tential labour productivity derived from the World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Index (GCI) and a methodology published by the Australian Treasury. We review the conceptual framework un- derpinning this model, and identify its core assumptions. Finally, we highlight potential applications for this model, including: considering the dispersion of global economic activity; assessing the potential scale of activity across dierent trading blocs; and quantifying the impact of domestic policy reform scenarios in individual economies. Rather than provide an exhaustive analysis of the results, we make the data and results freely available.

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