The Rise of China and East Asian Export Performance: Is the Crowding-out Fear Warranted?

This paper examines the effects of China’s rapid integration into the global economy
on export performance of its East Asian neighbours against the backdrop of ongoing changes in
patterns of international production. Following a stage-setting overview of trends and patterns of
China’s export performance since the early 1990s,  it probes two key themes central to the current
policy debate, namely China competition in third country markets and emerging patterns of East
Asian exports to China. The statistical analysis places particular emphasis on the supply-side
complementarities between China and its East Asian neighbours resulting from China’s rapid
integration into regional production networks. The findings suggest that the fear of export
crowding-out has been vastly exaggerated in the contemporary policy debate on the implications
of China’s rise.