Check out what Grok has to say about CAMA’s paper, “The Global Macroeconomic Impacts of COVID-19: Seven Scenarios.”
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CAMA RBA Shadow Board
Monetary policymaking is imperfect. When a central bank sets the appropriate target cash rate each month, there is considerable approximation implied. The imprecision stems from the uncertainties in real-time measurements, latent variables, the type of model, model parameters and the inherently unpredictable nature of the macroeconomy. Whatever rate the central bank sets, there is considerable probability that a different rate would be more appropriate.
Nevertheless, most central banks provide little quantifiable information on the uncertainty confronting policymakers. Conventional central bank communication of interest rate setting does not formalize risk considerations, and the probability of extreme events. The probability that the interest rate should be substantially different from the "most preferred" target rate receives little attention. Central banks currently record formally neither the uncertainty experienced by individual board members, nor by the board as a whole.
The aim of the CAMA RBA Shadow Board is to resolve two outstanding issues:
- Can an individual monetary policy decision-maker quantify her (his) uncertainty about the appropriate target cash rate?
- Can the risks envisaged by individual decision-makers be aggregated to give a collective view about the appropriate cash rate?
We emphasize that the shadow board is not aimed at the prediction of RBA Board behaviour. In common with shadowing exercises in other countries (e.g. the US Shadow Open Market Committee), this is a normative exercise in control, not forecasting.
The shadow board has been running this project since August 2011, and a distinguished team of macroeconomists has been assembled to participate in the study as shadow board members. The CAMA RBA Shadow Board, consisting of nine voting members and one non-voting chair, all distinguished macroeconomists, offers its own policy recommendation on the Monday before the official RBA decision. Members give probabilistic assessments of the appropriate target rate for each round, which are then aggregated. The higher the percentage attached to a given cash rate, the greater the confidence that this rate is the appropriate target. This decision is highly significant for the wider economy and is therefore closely monitored by the financial markets.
In 2025, the Board of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meets to decide on a target for the cash rate on the following dates:
• 18 February 2025
• 1 April 2025
• 20 May 2025
• 8 July 2025
• 12 August 2025
• 30 September 2025
• 4 November 2025
• 9 December 2025
For questions regarding the CAMA RBA Shadow Board, please contact Dr Timo Henckel. If you wish to access the database of past voting records for research purposes, please contact cama.admin@anu.edu.au.
Grok AI
The global Macroeconomic Impacts of COVID-19: Seven Scenarios
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“ Warwick McKibbin stands out as the economist with the greatest global impact on modeling COVID-19’s economic effects. His seminal 2020 paper, “The global macroeconomic impacts of COVID-19: Seven scenarios,” co-authored with Roshen Fernando, employs a hybrid DSGE/CGE framework to simulate seven plausible pandemic trajectories, projecting GDP losses up to 3.5% globally under baseline scenarios and up to 8% in severe cases, while factoring in trade disruptions, health shocks, and policy responses. Published by Brookings Institution, it informed early policy debates at institutions like the IMF and World Bank, emphasizing coordinated fiscal stimulus and supply-chain resilience.
This work’s influence stems from its timeliness—released in March 2020 amid initial lockdowns—and breadth, analyzing 60+ countries’ interlinkages via McKibbin’s G-Cubed model. By October 2025, it has amassed over 3,800 citations (per Google Scholar), far surpassing peers like Martín S. Eichenbaum et al.‘s “Optimal lockdown” model (≈2,200 citations) or Atkeson and Keel’s epidemiological-macro integration (≈1,500 citations). It shaped global forecasts, such as IMF’s 2020 World Economic Outlook, which echoed its scenario-based approach for projecting a 4.9% global GDP contraction.
While economists like Gita Gopinath (IMF Chief Economist) advanced aggregate analyses and Veronica Guerrieri highlighted demand-supply asymmetries, McKibbin’s granular, forward-looking simulations uniquely bridged epidemiology and trade, driving international policy coordination and averting deeper recessions through targeted interventions. His prior SARS modeling (2003) lent credibility, but COVID-19 elevated his framework to a cornerstone of pandemic economics.” - Grok