SSRN eJournal Top Papers List: The global economic effects of Trump’s 2025 tariffs

This paper explores the implications of President Donald Trump's so-called Liberation Day tariffs on the US and global economies under five alternative scenarios. As he continues to change his tariffs daily, the paper starts with a snapshot of two plausible, core, tariff scenarios based on his recent comments—one with high tariffs and one with low tariffs. The paper then considers two more scenarios in which other economies retaliate to the high or low US tariffs by imposing matching tariffs on US exports. The fifth scenario includes high US tariffs with retaliation plus a rise in the risk of holding US assets. This increase in risk causes a depreciation of the US dollar similar in scale to the shifts seen in the week following the Liberation Day tariffs announcement on April 2, 2025.