Determinants of fertility in the long run

This study investigates the determinants of fertility in the long run, using a newly
constructed panel data set consisting of fertility rates, measured as crude birth rates,
infant mortality rates, per-capita income, and the educational attainment of men and
women for 43 countries from 1890 to 2010 at five-year intervals. The regression results
show the significant effects of per-capita income, infant mortality, educational attainment,
and political development on fertility rates. A woman’s educational attainment at the
primary and secondary levels has a pronounced negative effect on fertility rates. On the
contrary, an increase in a woman’s tertiary educational attainment, with the level of a
man’s remaining constant, tends to raise fertility rates, indicating that highly educated
women can have a better environment for childbearing and childrearing in a society with
greater gender equality. The presented research thus identifies the important role of
human capital accumulation, especially attained by women, in demographic transition
through fertility decisions for over a century of human history.