In this talk, Ben Phillips will discuss The Australian National University’s new estimates of supply and demand for housing at a regional and national level. The research considers the question of whether Australia and its regions have a housing shortage or surplus. The research uses ABS Census data and a range of other data sets to estimate housing demand and supply from a demographic growth perspective. We find that in aggregate Australia does not have a housing shortage but there is considerable variation at the regional level with housing surpluses in Australia’s major capital city CBDs and some mining areas of regional Queensland and Western Australia. The research does also find regions with housing shortages, particularly in middle and outer ring areas of Sydney and Melbourne. We also consider the relationship between the supply ‘gap’ and house price growth at a regional level.

Ben Phillips is a Principal Research Fellow at the ANU Centre for Social Research and Methods. He has 20 years of experience as an economic and social researcher in Australia. Ben manages the PolicyMod modelling team at the ANU Centre for Social Research and Methods which is a microsimulation model of the Australian Tax and Transfer system. Ben’s main research interests include the Australian tax and welfare system and housing research. Prior to joining the ANU Ben was responsible for a range of modelling projects at the Institute for Governance and Policy Analysis (NATSEM) including the STINMOD microsimulation model of Australia’s tax and transfer system. Ben managed several key projects including the distributional analysis of the Federal Government’s 2014-15 and 2015-16 Budgets.

Prior to joining the ANU Ben twice worked at NATSEM and has also had roles at the ABS as a methodologist and economist, The Housing Industry Association as a senior economist and the Bureau of Tourism Research as an economic forecaster.

The talk will be followed by a panel discussion. The panel members include housing research experts from academia, industry and government. All have vast experience in the field of housing policy in Australia. The panel will provide unique and diverse range of insights into the housing market in Australia. Each panel member will be asked to respond to the ANU research and add their own valuable insights in the housing market from the perspective of housing affordability and the housing market in general. The conversation will then open up into a panel discussion with audience participation.

Other panellists:

• Paul McBride, Group Manager, Welfare and Housing Policy, Department of Social Services
• Associate Professor Judy Yates, Honorary Associate, School of Economics, The University of Sydney
• Brendan Coates, Australian Perspectives Fellow, Grattan Institute
• Alex Waldren, Head of Industry Policy, Master Builders Association

The panel will be chaired by Professor Peter Whiteford, ANU Crawford School of Public Policy.