The long and the short of it: The role of the temporary migration program in shaping Australia’s economic future

This paper explores the short- and long-term economic outcomes of the Australian temporary migration program. We find that different temporary migration programs have substantial differences in economic outcomes and that these differences persist into the permanent migration program. The implication being that decisions about the size and composition of the temporary migration program have large long-term economic consequences. We use Mincer regressions and Oaxaca-Blinder analysis to understand the extent to which these outcomes are the result of selection on observable and unobservable characteristics. We also use the freeze in the Temporary Skilled Migration Income Threshold (TSMIT) as a natural experiment to show how temporary migration policy is transmitted through the permanent program.