Tariff liberalisation in Myanmar: an intertemporal CGE analysis

Crawford School of Public Policy | Arndt-Corden Department of Economics

Event details

PhD Seminar (Econ)

Date & time

Friday 18 May 2018
9.30am–11.00am

Venue

Seminar Room 2, Level 1, JG Crawford Building 132, Lennox Crossing, ANU

Speaker

Sun Htoo Aung, PhD Scholar, Crawford School, ANU.

Since 2011, Myanmar’s government has launched a series of economic reforms including partial liberalisation of international trade and finance. This paper employs an intertemporal computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to analyse the effects of hypothetical scenarios in which Myanmar eliminates its remaining tariffs. The scenarios are for anticipated reforms, surprise reforms, and phased-in reforms. The results show that each of these potential reforms would induce substantial sectoral adjustment in the short run, including positive output growth for most sectors. In the long run, the reforms would have a negative impact on sectors that currently benefit from protection but a positive impact on overall welfare.

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