The global recovery is set to decelerate amid diminished policy support, continued COVID-19 flare-ups, and lingering supply bottlenecks. In contrast to that in advanced economies, output in emerging market and developing economies will remain markedly below pre-pandemic trends in the near-term. The outlook is clouded by various downside risks, including new COVID-19 outbreaks, the possibility of de-anchored inflation expectations, and financial stress in a context of record-high debt levels. These challenges underscore the importance of national policy responses and strengthened global cooperation to promote a green, resilient, and inclusive recovery path.

Ayhan Kose is Chief Economist and Director of the Prospects Group in the Equitable Growth, Finance, and Institutions (EFI) Practice Group of the World Bank. Under his management, the Prospects Group produces the Bank’s corporate flagship report, Global Economic Prospects, in addition to other policy and analytical publications. Prior to joining the World Bank, he was Assistant to the Director of the Research Department and Deputy Chief of the Multilateral Surveillance Division in the IMF. He is a Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution, a Research Fellow at the CEPR, a Dean’s Fellow at the University of Virginia’s Darden School of Business, and a Research Associate at CAMA.

Garima Vasishtha is Senior Economist in the Prospects Group of the World Bank. She is a lead author of the corporate flagship Global Economic Prospects report. She conducts research on policy-relevant issues in the broad fields of international finance and open economy macroeconomics. Her prior roles include Senior Advisor to the Executive Director for Canada, Ireland, and the Caribbean at the IMF. She began her career at the Bank of Canada, where she held a range of roles in the International Department. She holds a Ph.D. from the University of California, Santa Cruz.