COVID-19

Trade and inflation in production networks: The case of Australia

Crawford School of Public Policy | Arndt-Corden Department of Economics

Event details

PhD Seminar (Econ)

Date & time

Friday 15 November 2024
11.00am–12.15pm

Venue

Weston Theatre JG Crawford Building and Online Zoom

Speaker

Thuy Hang Duong

The world experienced a sustained period of low and stable inflation from the early 1990s until COVID-19. This paper examines the impacts of international trade on price inflation through production networks. We first build a theoretical model of an open economy to illustrate how input-output networks propagate the price impacts of trade shocks. Using Australia’s data from 47 manufacturing industries from 2000 to 2023, we show strong connectedness of inflation across industries and further estimate the network impacts of trade shocks on inflation. The results show that the network impacts of trade shocks are as significant as their direct impacts, and are primarily driven by upstream industries. Australia’s low inflation before COVID-19 benefited from increasing exposure to China’s low-cost exports, while post-COVID inflation surged with global supply chain disruptions. This paper underscores the importance of economic globalisation for inflation through production networks, and offers several implications for monetary policy.

Speaker’s profile

To join in-person:

Venue: Weston Theatre, JG Crawford Building, 132 Lennox Crossing, Acton 2601 ACT (ANU Crawford School of Public Policy)

To join online:

Please register to receive a Zoom link.

Updated:  21 November 2024/Responsible Officer:  Crawford Engagement/Page Contact:  CAP Web Team