Dominant currencies and financial channel of exchange rate: Is export growth elusive?
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PhD Seminar (Econ)
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The outsized role of the USD in international trade and finance has prompted a reassessment of how global markets are interconnected. On the trade front, the dominant currency paradigm argues that exchange rate depreciation has a muted effect on exports; however, while this is true from the demand side, exports can increase through the supply side. This study finds supporting evidence at the product-extensive margin. Additionally, as trade relies heavily on finance, credit availability and exports are interlinked. By capturing the foreign currency exposure of banks, the study finds that when the net foreign asset is positive, an appreciation attenuates exports while a depreciation has an augmenting effect only for lower levels of exposure. This asymmetry is associated with the global financial cycle. Furthermore, by examining the variation in financial dependence of products, the study demonstrates how the financial channel dampens the trade channel of the exchange rate.
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