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Estimating monetary policy rules when nominal interest rates are stuck at zero

Vol: 
CAMA Working Paper 53/2013
Author name: 
Jinill Kim
Seth Pruitt
Year: 
2013
Month: 
August
Abstract: 

Did the Federal Reserve’s response to economic fundamentals change with the onset of the Global Financial Crisis? Estimation of a monetary policy rule to answer this question faces a censoring problem since the interest rate target has been set at the zero lower bound since late 2008. Surveys by forecasters allow us to sidestep the problem and to use a conventional regression. We find that the Fed’s inflation response has decreased and that the unemployment response has remained as strong; this suggests that the Federal Reserve’s commitment to stable inflation has become weaker in the eyes of the professional forecasters.

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