Key points:

• The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is both a blueprint for a China-centric order in the Indo-Pacific and a means to address internal economic and political challenges.
• China is not yet capable of leading that order, but its desire to do so is increasing.
• Prospects for the long-term success of BRI are uncertain, but it will shift regional economic and strategic relationships.
• Policy flexibility is vital for Australia to successfully navigate the regional changes caused by China’s gamble on BRI.

Policy recommendations:

• Australia should aim to take an important leadership role within the Indo-Pacific in any new regional order.
• Australia should seek to build coalitions of like-minded states around specific issues of mutual interest rather than construct new institutions or organisations.
• Australian policy must be flexible, and prepared, if necessary, to decouple its values from its interests to take advantage of the opportunities that will present.