COVID-19

Specification tests for time-varying parameter models with stochastic volatility

Vol: 
CAMA Working Paper 41/2015
Author name: 
Joshua C.C. Chan
Year: 
2015
Month: 
November
Abstract: 

We propose an easy technique to test for time-variation in coefficients and volatilities. Specifically, by using a noncentered parameterization for state space models, we develop a method to directly calculate the relevant Bayes factor using the Savage-Dickey density ratio—thus avoiding the computation of the marginal likelihood altogether. The proposed methodology is illustrated via two empirical applications. In the first application we test for time-variation in the volatility of inflation in the G7 countries. The second application investigates if there is substantial time-variation in the NAIRU in the US.

Updated:  1 May 2024/Responsible Officer:  Crawford Engagement/Page Contact:  CAP Web Team