No comment.
Outcome: July 2025
Aggregate
Current
6-Months
12-Months
3-Years
Sally Auld
Current
6-Months
12-Months
3-Years
Comments
Besa Deda
Current
6-Months
12-Months
3-Years
Comments
No comment.
Begoña Dominguez
Current
6-Months
12-Months
3-Years
Comments
No comment.
Mariano Kulish
Current
6-Months
12-Months
3-Years
Comments
No comment.
Guay Lim
Current
6-Months
12-Months
3-Years
Comments
No comment.
Warwick McKibbin
Current
6-Months
12-Months
3-Years
Comments
No comment.
James Morley
Current
6-Months
12-Months
3-Years
Comments
No comment.
John Romalis
Current
6-Months
12-Months
3-Years
Comments
No comment.
Peter Tulip
Current
6-Months
12-Months
3-Years
Comments
The trimmed mean CPI has come in below expectations. By a bit, relative to RBA and market forecasts; by more relative to what I was expecting; especially as unemployment is also lower.
Some of this looks like lower persistent pressure, so the inflation outlook is lower also, justifying a downward revision to the path of the cash rate.
Partially offsetting this, unemployment has also come in lower.
And the market and RBA are greatly overstating the effect of Trump’s tariffs on Australian monetary policy. A trade war will weaken our terms of trade, putting downward pressure on the $A, increasing inflation. The RBA’s reliance on “confidence effects” (on which they have been wrong in the past) suggests the forecasts are being fudged.