Outcome: February 2012

News update

Professor Vahey has provided the following observations of the Shadow Board's February decision:

• highest weight (around 50 percent) given to 4.25 ie hold,
• roughly 60 percent probability that the RBA Board should not cut; approximately 40 percent they should cut (by at least 25bp),
• less than 10 probability that the cut should be by 50bp.